CHINA-WATCH, FROM TWO THOUSAND FEET ABOVE

The names that come to mind when we think of leadership in modern China are Sun Yat-sen, Chiang Kaishek, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping. 

Sun Yat-sen, the first president of the Republic of China is considered as the father of the nation and the forerunner of the ‘Revolution’. His political party Kuomintang (Nationalist) has the distinction of ending monarchy in China. He is widely respected both in the mainland China and Taiwan,

Chaing Kaishek has the distinction of being one of the longest serving non-royal heads of state in the 20th century. He created the National Revolutionary Army which had both Kuomintang and Communist Party (CCP) members in it and he became the Generalissimo of the army. Kaishek’s role in unifying China by defeating the northern warlords was significant. Later, he fell out with the CCP and went through tumultuous times, settling in Taiwan as it ruler, when the communists overran the mainland. 

Mao Zedong is credited with the creation of modern China. The ‘Long March’ and the creation of ‘People’s Liberation Army’ by him are legion. He ruled the nation brutally and closed his eyes to the sufferings of million of Chinese of famine and diseases. He was instrumental in making the party as the supreme being and declared that the people, army and the government must be unquestionably loyal to the party. In the latter half of his leadership, the nation and its people went through huge distress. 

Deng Xiaoping was considered by the world as a pragmatic leader who opened up Chinese economy by taking it through the principles of ‘state capitalism’. Without diluting the supremacy of the party, he steered China out of the huge mess created by Chairman Mao. His initiatives stabilised the economy and ensured its fast growth, year on year. He gave good attention to south China (the Cantonese region) and converted it as the manufacturing centre of the world. While all these progressive developments were happening, he advised the nation to ‘hide the strength and bide the time’ (and that is precisely what Xi is now doing - biding the time). The last  40 years of unprecedented economic growth of China is the result of Deng’s policies and the Chinese never had it so good and rightly so, he is called the ‘Architect of modern China’! In the same way the Chinese describe Chiarman Mao, Deng Xiaoping also came to be is called as the ‘Paramount leader’. 

The man who is poised to become the greatest of the Chinese leadership is Xi Jinping. He had created the necessary regulatory ecosystem for him to let it happen. Coming into leadership in 2012, he maintained firm grip on the country and the party. In order to win the people’s empathy, he acted brutally on the corrupt people within the party and government. With policies such as ‘belt and road initiatives’ he ventured into the neighbourhood nations and other continents and in the process, made most of the developing nations economically dependent on China. China being the factory of the world, it also helped to maintain trade surplus with almost all nations. In about 10 years, he had put China almost on the top of the world both militarily and economically. His latest move is taking control of the emerging Chinese technology entrepreneurship that had made its mark globally, with a view to destroy monopolies and to create competition. 

It is actually on the strength of the economic foundations laid by Deng Xiaoping that Xi Jinping is riding the China wave. Xi has this unwavering ambition to establish Chinese supremacy over the world. He is unwilling to brook any inside resistance or competition to reach his aspirations. By doing all these, Xi is about to ensure his place in Chinese history, as the ‘Supreme leader’, above that of Mao. Towards this. there is also a move within the CCP to discredit Deng Xiaoping, the nation’s economic saviour. 

In a Covid world, many nations, including USA, have turned against China and realise Xi Jinping’s global designs. Leading countries now doubt that Corona Virus pandemic was a strategic initiative of Xi towards meeting China’s global supremacy. Energising alliances such as QUAD etc.by US is to counter any such move by Xi. 

Will Xi’s ambitions fructify? Only an internally stable China without dissent can let it happen. Xi also realises that and is trying his right earnest to keep it so. 

Let us continue our China watch……..

THE AMERICAN MISADVENTURE IN AFGHANISTAN, THE NATION OF WARLORDS

There is a Panchatantra story about a ‘mooshika’ (mouse) lady. It is about a sage converting a mouse into a lady (called Mooshika) and then trying to marry her off to the strongest man in the world and then going to sun and from sun to cloud to wind to mountain, requesting each to marry his daughter. Finally, the mountain tells him that the rat is more powerful than him. Thereafter, the sage marries her off to the rat after converting the lady back to a mouse. 

 Mooshika lady has now become an adage, used whenever anything gets converted back into its original form. 

 Isn’t this happening in Afghanistan? Taliban, a movement that began in 1994 in Quetta of Pakistan of Pashto madrasa students which becomes a militia to join Afghan civil war with the help of ISI, then confiscate power from the warlords to become the nation’s rulers. After being in control for five years, they were overthrown by the US led invaders as a reaction to the 9/11 episode, and thereafter trying to to bring democracy in the country. That was in 2001. Two decades later, the US, still not able to finish off the Taliban insurgency, gets tired of its responsibility of resurrecting democracy in a clannish warlord country and started vacating the troupes. Taliban is back with a vengeance, except for Kabul, it had taken control of almost the rest of Afghanistan. The fall of Kabul in imminent, it looks like. 

So, the mooshika lady becomes a mooshika again. 

 What could happen to Afghanistan is anybody’s guess. The killing fields will come back as Taliban will behave brutally to the enemies within. Pakistan’s control will goes up, China will come in there and the threat to India from that end will double up. Now, look at the United State of America. Wherever the big brother had gone militarily to overthrow governments, it had eventually failed. Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, Libya and now Afghanistan; all turned into big time misadventures. (It is another story that war is a big business for the American weapon industry) From Afghanistan, with a two timing ally such as Pakistan, America must have learnt a huge lesson. The US had been fighthing a nation without understanding its culture. To top it further, It is now challenged by the emerging world power, China which has the support of Russia & Pakistan. US must have realised that getting out of Afghanistan is the best thing to do. 

 Meanwhile, back to square one, the nation Afghanistan is going to bleed badly.

Dr. P K Varrier

Everyone in Kerala knew Dr. PK Varrier. Many people in India and selected people across the globe knew him too. As an ayurveda physician and head of THE true  Ayurveda therapy institution, the Kottakkal Arya Vaidya Sala (KAVS), he had treated Presidents, Prime ministers, Monarchs and many Heads of the nations. Who could claim such an unique distinction?

My first connect with him was when Kerala Management Association decided to bestow him with its prestigious Management Leadership in 2002. I had the privilege of drafting his citation and reading it out at the award function. The award was given away to him by the then Speaker of Kerala Assembly, Vakkom Purushothaman. 

An year later, I was invited to his organisation to deliver a keynote in ‘Information Technology in Business’. He was there to listen to it with all senior managers of the organisation. It didn’t stop at that, I was again invited to speak to the Board of Trustees of KAVS, headed by Justice Paripoornan, at BTH Sarovaram, Kochi, on why IT is important to KAVS. Post that, KVS started the computerisation there at the right earnest. 

Much later, in 2010, I had the pleasure of meeting him again at his office, when KAVS decided to go in for ERP, a project headed by Dr Murali (such a gem of an individual), his close relative, who holds a doctorate in Physics and was a scientist at TIFR Mumbai, after his superannuation came to serve KAVS. 

My last direct interaction with him was when I called him personally to get an appointment with him for the Admin. Officer of TiE:Kerala, who was having acute asthma challenges. Not only that he gave it but also he treated her personally and looked after like his own daughter (it required longer term treatment) 

He could be many things to many people; a freedom fighter, a doctor, a lover and preserver of art (particularly Kathakali), an institution builder or an industrialist but he will ever be remembered for his positive approach to life and love for fellow beings. 

He lived a 100 years, seen and done it all. Left us to join the creator. May his noble soul rest in eternal peace! Goodbye Sir! 

Prayers 🙏

Rishi dear

A precocious prodigy 

In studies, sports or arts

Or in music or instruments

Your touch made the difference 

Compassionate to the core 

For fellow beings or pets

Being their great buddy

You made the energies flow 

Whenever you chanted or played the violin 

Whenever you ran the cross-country race

Whenever you painted the Warli art

You left such deep poignant impression 

For those small years you lived

Before going back, just like that

To the Creator’s abode, so early

You exuded happiness galore

In another world, another time

We must be meeting you dear 

So long, but keep the radiance 

Forever we long to see ........

(My wife’s cousin Dr Anita Shet lost her second son Rishi in a freak accident in the US,  at the age of 17, a week ago. Ref:www.rishishet.com)

CURRENT ISRAELI - PALESTINE CONFLICT

Many millennia ago, Mosses led the suffering, enslaved Jews out of Egypt into the ‘promised land’. While he passed away on the journey, his successor, Joshua completed the task by crossing them over river Jordan to reach the promised land, Israel. By BCE 1000, the Jew kingdom flourished with the rule of King David and his son Solomon, and it was the best of times for ancient Israel. 

In the next three millennia, Israel was attacked by the Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Arabs, Turks, Crusaders, Egyptians, Islamist and others. Between sixteen century and the early twentieth century CE, Israel was ruled by the Ottoman Empire. Thus the ‘promised land’ had been overcome by the non-Jews. Many Jews by then had moved over to Europe to become a strong business community there. 

After the First World War,  the the ‘promised land’ which by then had less Jews and more Palestinians, came under the British control. During 1920s, the then British Foreign Secretary, AJ Balfour, created a letter of intent (the Balfour Declaration), later endorsed by League of Nations (predecessor to the current UN), supporting the establishment (again) of Israel, the ‘promised land’ of Jews by dividing it between the Palestinians and the Jews. 

It took another three decades for the Israel State to come into being. By 1947, the United Nation, setting aside  the rejection of the move by Arabs, approved the partition of the land between Palestinians and the Jews. By May 1948, Israel was officially declared as an independent state with Ben Gurion, the head of the Jewish agency, as the first Prime Minister. 

Into the modern day ‘promised land’ of Israel, hordes of Jews from all over the world, particularly the Europe (including those who had suffered from the hands of Nazis and the Axis) moved into. Using alliances, money power, muscle power and later military power, Israel thwarted the moves by Palestinians, Arabs and the hostile neighbours, to establish and grow (and expand) its Statehood. 

Who suffered the worst in the development was the Palestinians, of course. They got shrunk into two separate pieces of land, The Gaza strip and West Bank, completely surrounded by Israel. The efforts of Yassir Arafat and later by Abbas to resurrect them and fight against their arch enemy, Israel, are legion. However, the military might of Israel exponentially multiplied and so has its cruelty against the Palestinians. It is indeed horrendous to see how the Palestinians are living there now. 

By May 2021, there began heavy escalation of tension between the two nations. It started with the order of Israeli Supreme Court to evict some

Palestinian families from East Jerusalem and the resulting mob violence between Jews and Palestinians led to rocket attack by Hamas against Israel and Israel undertaking big airstrikes on the Gaza Strip. So far 200 Palestinians, 10 Israelis (and one Keralite) have died. While action is still on, mediators are trying to negotiate and settle the issue. 

In the wake of Israel gaining diplomatic traction with the Arab world, at the same time building up its military power in a super style, the sufferings of the Palestinians are expected to become worse. Fighting Israel, in no way, will help their cause. External assistance have diminished considerably for their cause too. 

Notwithstanding the suffering, It is time the Palestinian understood the reality and act accordingly. Any amount of military aggression from them will only increase their hardship. Discussions, talks & negotiations are the way forward. 

A NEW WORLD ORDER ?

Over the last two decades, the nations have been evolving into being part of new umbrella groups; based on economics, political and also, on defence concerns. We now see certain accelerated pace in the consolidation process.

Here, we predominantly refer to the political developments and defence consolidations.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was founded in Shanghai during 2001 as an intergovernmental organization by Russia, China, Khazakhstan, Krygystan, Tajikistan, & Uzbekistan. The objectives of the formation of SCO were to strengthen relationship between member countries; promote cooperation in political, commercial, technological, cultural, and educational spheres; safeguard regional peace, security, and stability; create democratic, equitable international political and economic order. The last point seems funny as none of founder members is known for their democratic practices, which is worsening, as years go by. Later, in 2017, India and Pakistan joined SCO as full members. It is not sure what was India expecting to be part of the group with China & Russia, two big bullies, patronising it. Other than higher trade possibilities, nothing comes to mind. However with India in the group, today SCO may not be able to function as a NATO equivalent because of the variation in political ideology between India & other nations in the group. That looks like a checkmate situation.

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD)

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (also known as the Quad) started as an informal strategic dialogue between the United Staes, Japan, Australia & India. The dialogue was initiated in 2007 by Prime Minister of Japan with the Vice President of the US, Prime Minister of Australia and Prime Minister of India. The dialogue had succeeded in Exercise Malabar, a joint military exercise of an unprecedented scale on Indian Ocean. This was viewed as a response to Chinese economic & military consolidation and China did respond to the developments by issuing formal diplomatic protests to the Quad members.

The acrimony between US & China  for sometime, and the present challenges between US & Russia, is slowly taking QUAD into an Asian equivalent of NATO, and it could precipitate a Cold War situation.

On 12^th March 2021, the first Quad summit took place online between the four member nations and the group resolved to commit to manufacturing one billion doses of Covid vaccine by 2022 for distribution in Asia, where China’s presence casts a huge shadow.  Quad seems to have come of age as an important pillar of stability in the region, trying to create ‘free, rules-based order, both in the Indo-Pacific and beyond’, as envisaged by its founders.

The recently concluded talks between USA and China in Alaska on 18 & 19^th of March 2021 were practically an aborted attempt with tough dialogues and body posture displayed by both parties. Both sides accused each other of having broken diplomatic protocol between them. While the United States accused China of threatening the rule based order of global stability, China lashed out at US, accusing it of condescension and hypocrisy. China also displayed an attitude to US of, 'you need me, I don't need you’.

The China – Russia Solidarity

Immediately as a follow through of the failed Alaska talks, China held Foreign minister level talks with Russia on 22^nd March 20221 in China in which both accused United States of interference and sanctions. In a show of unity, the foreign ministers of both China and Russia have condemned Western sanctions against them and accused the US of political interference. Naturally enough, Chinese Foreign Minister and his Russian counterpart rejected outside criticism of their respctive authoritarian regiems.

Group of Friends in Defence of the Charter of the UN

Anticipating troubles ahead, in March 2021 itself, Russia and China along with North Korea & Iran, established ‘Group of Friends in Defence of the Charter of the United Nations’ giving message of supporting the UN’s founding treaty, seeking to promote multilateralism and diplomacy over the use of force by Nations or blocks against ‘perceived violations’ by other UN member states. It has 17 signatory countries in it, in addition to the above four, which include Cuba, Cambodia, Palestine, Syria, Venezuela, Algeria, Angola, Belarus, Bolivia, Laos, Eritrea, Nicaragua & St. Vincent.

Apparently, the’ Group of Friends’ as above, are taking an advance bail against the atrocities that each is committing inside their nation and asking the UN and the world to accept their authoritarian regimes. It is expected that the number of nations in this group will go up. It is early stage of the group consolidation. Also, it wouldn't be surprising to see new members added to Quad. In addition to this, we also must take cognizance of existing bodies such as NATO and the bilateral agreements of protection between nations. 

It is now evident from the dynamics that the world is now moving into another evolution of world order.

IN YOUR EXPENDABILITY LIES YOUR GREATNESS

You may be the darling of your people

That doesn’t make our thought any supple

You, the deep State does not bother

You are just a census number, rather 

It exhorts you to love your nation

Surely, more than your imagination 

It needs loyalists from time to time

As it gets into complex wartime 

You could be a soldier or a doctor 

May be a teacher or a pen pusher

Be ready to die for the blessed nation 

And do not have any indignation 

People could perish sooner than later 

All are born with an end, you know better

Your wish to actualise, is your need

Deep State wants your sacrifice, indeed

We then begin to worship your valour 

Lest an unknown, we make you bigger  

It is our To wish to make you a fighter 

Hold your dreams, we made you a martyr!

So dense a black hole is the deep State 

You hating it of meanness is a distaste 

Caring people is surely not its goal 

Managing world view, is our ball

The polity may be right or the left 

No difference it makes, to set right  

Your lofty expectation, you fool

To it, you are anything but a tool 

You are a number, one in a billion 

Your being there do not count any million 

In your expendability lies your greatness 

And we award you glory, posthumous!