Wednesday, August 10, 2011

ANOTHER ECONOMIC DOWNTURN IN THE MAKING

Brace yourselves Ladies and Gentlemen, in all probability; there is a global economic Tsunami in the offing. The dark clouds of the same have been hovering around the sky for some time now, in the form of global inflation, food shortage, stock market slides, northward interest rates and liquidity shortage. The Deficit crisis in US though got resolved for the time being by the Obama administration, had resulted the Standard & Poor downgrading the rating of that country from AAA to AA+ and this had amply augmented the process of Downturn. (It is another matter that the same Standard & Poor applied poor standards in rating the derivatives of the subprime loans). The present precarious economic condition of European nations particularly Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain & Italy will make matter worse for the globe. The crude oil price hasn’t fallen yet and the skyrocketing of Bullion rates is another manifestation of the challenges to come about.

Then there are talks about Rupee appreciating against dollar which is bad news for exports. Conversely it could be positive for the country that our oil imports will get the benefit from a weak dollar.

In the last instance of the major global recession that happened only 3 years ago, though India was not impacted at the scale of what happened to China and all, our IT sector and Exports were affected. This time too it could happen to these sectors though there is this comfort factor that western IT companies have sufficient cash surplus to pursue the ITS & ITES services to continue being in India. This is happy news.

What is the situation for India now? We would want the crude oil prices to come down. This alone will control the inflation and bring down the interest rates. Lower interest rates will move up the financial services market, particularly the stock market, giving fillip to retail investors who are really off it now.

When American and European markets are not doing well, the advice given to FIIs was to invest in attractive Asian market. India should await that to happen. But will that ever happen? Please consider the present political situation in the country. Madam is sick and away, the PM is inactive and not really in control, the coalition parties are continuing the loot, perceptions of big and rampant corruption at high places, civil society agitations, states wanting to split etc. are not giving them any confidence to do so. This could be a major worry for all.

News of Global recession brings fear in every body’s mind. Our Finance Minister hasn’t really commented on it. Like everyone, he is also on a wait and watch mode. I hope and pray that as in the past, the recession will not make a major impact on our country. However, my hunch says no. As we are getting more and more integrated into the global economy (do you know that India has invested in Rs.1,83,000 crores in American Debt papers?), the chance of the impact can only go up. Is that not the reason for our FM, RBI Governor etc . keeping mum and watching the developments? So, there is no surety on anything. It comes as it comes. We cannot predict anything in advance.

Is there a reason to panic? Presently, no. Though time hasn’t come for one to go into true austerity measure, it would be a good idea to restrict ostentatious spending. This is time for cautious optimism. The emerging huge Indian market could be a saviour for the Indian trade and commerce. However we need to ensure is that we get into the market with products and services that has global quality and standards. That could be a challenging task for the Indian industry particularly the SME sector. The huge SME sector needs to go thru the transformation process to be the best. It is where systems, process and technology come to help. Organisations that undergo the change in these lines will benefit immensely from the local market. So it is time for Indian industry, particularly the SME to think, plan and act.

Is it a tall order?

Saturday, July 23, 2011

THE CASE OF BEING Dr. MANMOHAN SINGH

Our Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has now become the second longest serving PM of India after Mrs Indira Gandhi. However, he has a long way to go before he beats her. It is a feat that is almost impossible for him, considering the present geopolitical situation of India and his age.

A brilliant Economist in his hey days (do not know if it can be said of him now, for him now it is more politics than economics), he had been a Researcher, a Professor, A Bureaucrat, an Economic adviser to Minsters, later a Cabinet Minister and now the Prime Minister and he had seen it all. Many would argue that lady luck had smiled on him many number of occasions, for him to be here. There is another school of thought that he had been a compromise candidate due to his abilities of mouth-shut and non-indulgence, in addition to being a ‘yes’ man. Thanks to his discipline, back seat driving in Politics had taken deep roots in India.

He came into prominence when India had only Hobson’s choice left to economically redeem itself globally. As a financially tottering nation came into the hands of Narsingh Rao to take care in 1991 and it was Rao as PM, who chose Dr Manmohan Singh, till then a Bureaucrat and economic advisor and brought him in as the Finance Minister of India. Rest is history, the whole world will know. India opened up and ‘globalization’ came here to stay. There is argument still whether the credit of globalization should go to Dr Manmohan Singh, particularly when there was no choice left for the country. Whatever be the merit of the argument, it is a fact that he presided over India’s globalization and that grew India to its present position as a leading global economic power. If ever he has to be remembered by posterity it is this deed and there is nothing else to really write home about, for all his latest deeds had been a result of the back seat driving that happened by the power that be, and every Indian knows who it is.

One has to truly marvel this ‘humble’ soul for the discipline with which he had gone about with his Prime Minister-ship. In his case, the dictum of “power corrupts..” had been proved wrong. He stayed totally ego less, truly as a dedicated servant of the Gandhi family. Even today, a single word from madam, he would fold his ‘bori- bister’ and vacate the office instantly. This aspect of behavior, we cannot see or expect from any Congressman of India, including the cronies who form the kitchen cabinet of the madam.

So, what is happening now? Most of the ills of the country are the result of the decisions taken by the coalition ministers of the UPA-1 ministry of Dr Manmohan Singh. A person like him, however clean he is, did not have the power and the leadership to manage or control his errant ministers, particularly those who came from allied parties such as the DMK, the TMC etc. What is the situation now? Completely mired in large corruption scandals, Dr Manmohan Singh has his back to the wall. Whereas he is looking at the madam for directions, it is not clear if he is getting the full support. Ministerial colleagues like Kapil Sibal (fully) and Pranab Mukherji (to some extend) are putting their mite behind him but we see him retreating more and the helplessness is writ large on his face, howsoever emotionless it is……..

His leadership style never had the ability to manage chaos. Whilst he has been innovative in his financial policies (particularly when he was the FM), his thinking always had been that of a ‘bureaucrat’, like the servant looking at the master for directions. He neither has the courage to take strong epoch making decisions nor was he capable of correcting and leading his colleagues to the right direction. What is that he has now? Only the clean image and he is clinging to it like his dear life. But when everything around him is so dirty and when he has no guts to take strong decisions, what is the point in clinging to it? It is better for him personally to leave the chair, with whatsoever cleanliness intact.

It is here that I would like to add an observation of the personal changes that he had undergone. After his heart surgery, he is much more in distress. The physical discomfort is very evident in his acts and deeds. His body language, his voice delivery, even his emotionlessness, is clearly affected as a result of that. One really does not know if he is really enjoying the Prime Minster ship. He looks to be stuck on to it, like a reluctant husband…

Is it the country’s fortune or misfortune? Time will tell……

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

MF HUSSAIN - THE PAINTER OF HORSES

The look of an angel
With long fingers
The nonagenarian
The horse painter

The non conformist
With a creative air
Deft strokes producing
Peerless pictures

The weathered wall painter
With abstracts of modernity
So prolific on canvass
Thousands in numbers

The ladies’ man
With plenty of muses
Superstars to Socialites
To lap up adulation

No compromise
With artistic freedom
The proud man
Forced to flee

A thankless world
With nimble memories
A cruel world of
Religious fanatics

Toothless law
With no security
Fleeing to end
His Life offshore

He will be back
With Posthumous fame
The shoeless fakir
For a shameless country to claim

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

THOUGHTS, QUESTIONS & TRIVIA

• To those jails that were once filled by the parents on account of freedom struggle, the children go in; convicted for corrupt deals and crime.

• The quantum of corruption had ballooned exponentially. Bofors scandal was worth just seventy odd crores of Rupees and it cost the person his prime minster-ship. Now it is thousands of crores, and still the PM chair is very much intact.

• One of the most powerful persons of the world is a prisoner to her own security services. Even if the bird is a golden cage, it is nothing but captivity that it undergoes.

• Is leadership a way to amass wealth and power?

• If one nation has really problems of plenty, it is India. Truly it suffers on account of a huge population.

• After a person takes oath in a court to be truthful in his deposition and is found to be guilty later, then why is he not jailed for contempt of court for being untruthful at the first place?

• The crux of every known religion is love and compassion. Then why does religion fight each other?

• If nirvana is liberation from the sensory pleasures and finding the true self/God within, then why do we fanatically go after external Gods/God men for salvation?

• How many crores of Rupees will give you the peace of mind?

• Why do some make rules and regulation for everyone to follow but themselves?

• Who is the culprit that causes your emotions to burst; others or yourself?

• Is it worthy not to act because every action produces equal and opposite reaction?

• When leadership is full of thornes, is followership bed of roses?

• Who will bell the cat? You or your neighbour?

• Are you doing the right thing when you don’t tell someone because it will hurt him?

• Who is most powerful, Jesus Holy Christ or the Pope?

• Countries get rich by selling arms and war goods to others. They progress while humanity kills each other and destroy everything around. Is that what you call progress?!

• What goes around, will it come around? What about that goes to Swiss bank?

• What is true money, the white or black?

• When Buddha was an atheist, why is he called Bhagwan?

• Buddhism teaches Maitri Bhavana and defends it with Karate and Kungfu!

• It is very seldom that we find the words from someone matching with the true meaning of it?

• God is said to be ‘nirguna’, niramaya’ and ‘nirakara’. Then why does God look like human being in our thoughts?

• What is truth and how do we achieve truth?

Monday, April 11, 2011

BHARAT RATNA FOR SACHIN TENDULKAR

For long, Sachin Tendulkar has been the toast of the nation. Beautifully put by the young but thinking Virat Kohli to the commentator on the night that India had won the World Cup 2011, ‘he has been bearing the cross of the entire nation for 21 years’. Every single Indian, even if he is not a cricket fan, is in awe of Sachin and is concerned of his welfare. For all mothers, he is the son; for girls, he is the brother; for every sportsman, he is the role model; for dreamers, he is the manifestation of ultimate achievement. He is the darling of the nation. He simply cannot do anything wrong. When Greg Chapel told him to prepare for retirement, whole nation wanted to kill Chapel and suck his blood. ‘How dare he bring such a thought’ was the nation’s cry!

How did he protect his reputation this long? For a nation of 1.2 billion people, whose only obsession is cricket, he is the SUPER HERO. And this person maintained his image without a dent for long 21 years. He is well behaved, very even keel and still maintains the same levels of humility as in the past. For a player who hasn’t had academic accomplishments, we consider him as the ultimate master. Players say that he is a great team mate. He still practices for longer duration than any other player and has the discipline of his life and career intact. He is a good mentor for the junior players. While they respect him, they are so protective of him. The most valuable player of the tournament, Yuvraj Singh consecrated all his achievements of this World cup, to Sachin.

There are only minimum examples all around the world of a sportsperson who had achieved the stature that Sachin had grown into. From his game, there was Sir Don Bradman; in the field of athletics, there is a Carl Lewis or a Sergei Boobka. There is a Michael Jordan in Basketball, A Pele in Football; very few to count. Though Cricket is not a game played by all the nations of the world, in terms of followers, Sachin will have more followers than anybody. Just see how many Indians are there in the world and you will understand it.

How many records can a person really hold? Sachin Tendulkar keeps practically all the records of the game with him. In some areas, he has gone beyond any one’s reach. Even in this world cup, he is the second largest run getter. The Indian team dedicated this world cup to Sachin for, that was the only achievement that had eluded him in his long career.

Going with the wishes of the nation, Sachin hasn’t yet started to think about retiring from the any forms of the game. Though he is not partaking in the 20-20 world cup matches, he is still the captain of the Mumbai Indian team for the IPL 20-20 matches. We would continue to see Sachin Tendulkar chugging along, at least for another couple of years as he still has enough cricket juice left in him. He would know when to call it a day. But for now, he is still enjoying the game and doing a great job of it.

Maharashtra government passed a resolution in the assembly in the week of World cup win to recommend Sachin Tendulkar for Bharat Ratna Award, the highest civilian award that the country bestows on a person. Getting Bharat Ratna is a rare honour. Only very few had the privilege of getting it. This darling of the masses has now been officially nominated by his home state for the same.

The question is, has Sachin reached up to it, to the extent of being the Bharat Ratna recipient? Going back at the history, if one looks at the roll of honour of The Bharat Ratna recipients, you will see that a majority of them received it very well past their prime. Some of the well deserving personalities (such as Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel) got it posthumously. There is not even one person who had received in his thirty’s, forty’s or the fifty’s. No sportsperson has ever received this recognition. It looks like sports persons are not included in the category of Bharat Ratna recipients. An award such as Bharat Ratna reaches a person at the fag-end of his/her life and career. Look at Personalities such as Lata Mangeshkar, Bhimsen Joshi, Ravi Shankar, Bismillah Khan, Amartya Sen, Abdul Kalam and M S Subba Lakhshmi. All of them got the recognition after they went past their prime. They were all maestros in their field but they had to wait long to earn it. The pertinent question therefore is, has Sachin reached that stage?

Looking at the stage of life of all the above personalities, they had received the Bharat Ratna recognition after they had gone beyond the stage of self-actualization to that of SELF TRANSCENDENCE. Has Sachin reached the stage of self-transcendence in life?

There is still a lot of cricket left in him. He is much more of a commercial brand proposition now than that of a transcended person. There are some more milestones for him to reach. I feel the Bharat Ratna will taste him better when he receives the same after he retires from the game or at least at the very last stage of his career.

There is another question. If he is given Bharat Ratna now, what else will we give him at a stage when he really completes his accomplishments to become a transcended person?

A mute question it is, I believe. Though I know for sure, every emotional Indian will want it to happen now.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

TSUNAMI

What name have you Unpleasant, complex and strange Other name of gory destruction and death Always unkind, cruel and unwanted Mother earth heaves for you to happen Of the loads assimilated while moving And the inner plates rubbing each other The undulations, vibrations and the mighty roar As if having hurt the inner conscious And of the soaring sign wave of emotion And then the exit, forceful, to all direction Unreigned, wild and a violent aftermath Then you begin the sea, with it withdrawing first To return with furious tidal waves That climb the trees and houses on way The battering annihilation of life inside Nothing is spared, man or matter Leaving huge colorless imprints Of merciless killing and death And yes, the suffering, for years to come You are nature’s time bomb The avenger who takes all of life away Leaving near ones to dread to live With crestfallen thoughts of meek destiny

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

A PERSPECTIVE ON INDUSTRIALIZATION OF KERALA

We need a simplified Industrial policy for the state for (1) Facilitating investment in the state (2) Employment generation and employability enhancement (3) Adherence to high quality standards.

Kerala per say is not a business friendly state. The attitude of the policy makers, bureaucrats and the citizens of the state to business men and entrepreneurs within Kerala is not very positive. In their eyes, business men and entrepreneur are manpower exploiting, tax evading and PROFIT making people who are not welcomed.

In Kerala entrepreneurship is not celebrated or recognized.

The policy makers and executives conveniently forget the economic principle that Entrepreneurship is the foundation stone of economic progress. Any society which is not entrepreneurial will not grow and the present economic ambience of the state is a testimony to this fact.

When the Revenue Minister and Finance ministers of the state use public podiums to castigate businessmen and entrepreneurs publicly, who will dare to start a venture here?

For a state like Kerala with limitations of space, with no major manufacturing industries around, with people aspiring for white collar jobs, with so many NGOs and people clamouring to maintain the pristine nature of the state, the only call is to focus on SERVICE sector as the major industrial activity.

With this in mind we should make Kerala a centre of technology and skilled economic activity so as to give fillip to Service sector.

Kerala state government must support skill development and other promotional measures to set up Knowledge based industries in Kerala.

Though the Technocity and other district based information parks are there in the making, our Techno parks are slated to establish small companies within. This will not boost employment in large numbers in the state.

We need to take into account of the fact that every year Kerala state produces about 30000 fresh graduate engineers, 10000 diploma engineers, 10000 MCAs and another 30000 graduates who aspire to make it big through white collar employment. For close to 75000 employment seekers per annum, do we have world’s top IT companies present in Kerala for providing jobs? Sadly, no.

Infrastructures like Smart city, Techno city etc. must persuade big time employers like IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP etc. in IT development area and large BPO companies such as Accenture, IBM, Sodexho, Cap Gemini etc. in the BPO sector to set their base in their infrastructure. These companies will take care of the large employment requirement of the state, year on year.

People working in new generation companies aspire for enough of entertainment facilities around the place of working. Attitudinally the policy makers turn their eyes away from these realities. The requirement is genuine and by closing our eyes from this, we only forbid the arrival of such companies from setting base in Kerala.

Other major business segments to be focussed are Financial Services, Hospitality and Healthcare. The state must promote institutions of excellence in these areas for training the job seekers for these sectors.

Next in line could be Educational services, Biotechnology, Media, R&D and Design services.

Industries based on Ayurveda and Food processing also needs encouragement of the state.

Major hindrance to our growth is the lack of infrastructure, particularly roads and transportation facilities. The State has to take up the widening of roads and getting the roads into good shape, of the existing highways and the roads inside the city corporation limits.

Better transportation facilities round the clock are required for cities such as Cochin & Trivandrum. Both the cities also must plan for MRTP system now itself. The authorities and policy makers are neglecting the need of Cochin for a metro. Alternate transportation facilities such as water transport for the city of Cochin must be immediately implemented. It could be on a PPP model so that the state is not burdened on the capital expenditure required for them.

In a state like Kerala where large industries are not favoured due to constraints of space and population, Small and Medium Establishments (SME) must be focussed.

A new Industrial policy should be incorporated for specific interventions for the development of Small & Medium Enterprises which undoubtedly contribute significantly to the economic growth of any state.

SMEs must get interest subsidy, loan disbursement, quality certification, marketing assistance and awards and recognition.

To promote Venture Capital Funding for SME projects, adopting innovative technologies such as Nano technology, Information Technology and Bio-Technology, the Government should provide funds to FIs/Banks who have the necessary expertise in operating Venture Capital Funds. The minimum amount to be given to any such funds should be Rs. 100 Crores.

Though these are perspectives on the focus areas or areas of business, the basic aspect of the attitudinal change required in Malayali on entrepreneurship and companies is something that needs immediate attention. Unless that comes through, any plan that we make in Kerala to elevate its industrial output will not come about.

So, who will bell the cat?