THE HOT PLANET

When we read the Indus Valley Civilisation (IVC) history (also called, Harappan), what comes out clearly is that for about 1500 years in BCE, it prospered as a model urban centre and then it disintegrated.

The reason for the degeneration of IVC is not recorded as a major war that it had with any incoming army but climate change. Once a fertile land near Indus River, supplemented by the mythical Saraswati river (Gaggar-Hakra , a river emanating from Shivalik region of Himalayas) that had gone fully dry, the rise in temperature of Indus Valley region made it unliveable a place and the people moved away into other parts of the subcontinent.

I think, we are in for something similar to happen in the coming decade and thereafter, the pace of degeneration of the place we live will be much faster. Many regions of our country could be part of history in another 50-100 years.

I am no soothsayer but going by the scientific reports presented by World Metrological Orgn.(WMO), the prediction is that the annual mean global temperature is expected to rise by 1.5 to 2 degree celsius between 2023 & 2027 as compared to between 2918-2022.

What are going to be the after effects of this for us Indians ?

1. The oceans will go on fire and the resultant El-Nino effect will create a hot and dry global south (India inclusive) and a wet and cold global north

2. Monsoon will bring less than normal rainfall to India

3. Indian agriculture that is greatly dependant on the Monsoon, will suffer hugely on the cultivation output.

4. Heavy usage of temperature reducing mechanisms (air conditioners, chillers, freezers etc.) will emit much more carbon and that in turn will make the weather more hotter.

5. Indian coastline will be tested and it would become unsafe for those who live & work there

6. The ocean fisheries output will be reduced

7. The change in ocean temperature and the resultant speed & strength of ocean current will lead to huge cyclone / tsunami falls across the subcontinent

(Just read about the devastation caused by the recent cyclone Mocha in Myanmar & Bangladesh to understand the impact)

8. The overall resultant effect on Indian economy could be disastrous.

This is an area where governments of the countries should combine to resist anything that is worsening the global weather any further. Other than ‘lip service’, there isn’t anything happening in this front, though huge conferences are happening all over the planet.

Knowingly, we are inviting the monsters to come in, to destroy humanity.

EUSTACHIUS BENEDICTUS DE LANNOY

E.B. De Lannoy was the commander of the Dutch East India company Navy that fought King Marthanda Varma in 1741 at Colechel beach, now in Kanyakumari district of Tamil Nadu, earlier part of the Travancore Kingdom.

The Dutch Governor Imhoff, not happy with King for not protecting the Dutch interests, wanted to defeat him and the job landed on Commander De Lannoy. In spite of having superior fire power, his forces went down to the King’s army of native men (called ‘Nair Pattalam’) who were ably assisted by the local fishermen whose guerrilla tactics against Dutch navy on the sea was instrumental in the defeat.

De Lannoy and his deputy were caught & imprisoned in Udayagiri Fort of the King. Slowly De Lannoy could move into the good books of Marthanda Varma who asked him to train and modernise his Nair Pattalam. Having done a great work, the King‘s confidence in De Lannoy increased tremendously so did the loyalty of De Lannoy to the King, to the extent that De Lannoy went on to become The King’s army chief with a title of ‘Valiya Capithan’

In the later expeditions of the King across Kerala, which resulted in Travancore expanding into a huge state almost upto Trissur and also in fighting the army of Tipu Sultan; the valour and war intellect of De Lannoy was evident. The Nedumkotta (rampart) that he asked the army to build from Pallipuram (Vypin) upto Western Ghat, of more than 40 KMs in length was the product of De Lannoy’s military genius, that became Tipu’s Waterloo in Kerala.

It was a very strange case of an adopted foreigner completely becoming loyal to the King. The King’s attitude and behaviour to him also added to consolidate the relationship. De Lannoy served both Marthanda Varma and his successor, Rama Varma valiantly. He settled in Udayagiri (very close to the Padmanabhapuram palace of the Kings) and passed away there itself. Out of sheer respect, the King built the church and the burial place for De Lannoy at Udayagiri fort (see photos below). Time had dilapidated the edifices, of course.

Let us also know two additional curious inputs about De Lannoy.

1. De Lannoy was able to instil the faith of Jesus in Neelakantan, a court officer of the palace and converted him to a Christian. Neelakantan became Devasahayam and a martyr later and is now adorned as a Saint by Pope Francis.

2. E B De Lannoy was part of the Delano family (De Lannoy family) and is an ancestor of US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Read the English translation of what is written on his tomb in Udayagiri.

“Stand Traveller! Here lies the Eustachius Benedictus De Lannoy, who was commander of the general Travancore army and for nearly 37 years with greatest faithfulness served the King, who by strength and fear of his armies, subjugated all kingdoms from kayankulam to Cochin. He lived 62 years and died first day of June 1777. May he rest in peace!”

Later, his wife and son were also interred on both sides of him.

VASCO DE GAMA - THE MAN WHO STARTED EUROPEAN COLONIALISM IN INDIA

For eons, Europeans have been getting the supply of black pepper, cinnamon & spices from India via Arab traders. They were looking for a sea route to India so that they could directly do profitable business with it, avoiding the middlemen. In those times, the GDP of india exceeded 30% of the global figure. No wonder the European were desperate to reach it.

Many of the European nations, mostly Spain, Portuguese, France, Dutch and British were making attempts to reach India by sea and we had known the attempt of Columbus of Spain! It was at the same time that Vasco da Gama of Portugal sailed to the tip of Africa and went round of Cape of Good Hope to take up north easterly sea route to the coast of Malabar on May 1498 CE.

Opening up of direct sea route with India improved Portugal’s economy tremendously. Gama took 3 voyage courses to India, beginning in 1497, 1502 and 1524. On his last voyage, he fell ill and died in Cochin. Landing of Gama in Kappad, Kozhikode at the end of 15th century CE was the beginning of European colonialism in India. The violence and hostage-taking methods employed by Gama and his successors on India's indigenous kingdoms were truly brutal, that set the pattern for European colonialism in india.

From the Portuguese the control of the sea route and trade power shifted to the Dutch by 17th century and later permanently to the British with some feeble attempts by the French too, in between.

Considering his contribution to the country’s economy, by 1524, Vasco da Gama was anointed as Viceroy of Portugal to India by the Portugal Monarch. After he passed away in December 1524, he was interred inside the St. Francis Church at Fort Kochi which is the very first European church in India, consecrated in 1503 CE. From his tomb here the remains were taken and buried at the Jerónimos Monastery in Lisbon, later

The photos below show the Church which though started as a Catholic Church, is now occupied by the Church of South India which follows the Protestant Christian system. Prayers happen in the church even today. The Portuguese occupied the church between 1503 & 1663 CE. The Dutch took It over from them in 1664 and used it for their prayers upto 1804 CE. From the Dutch the British took control of it and after India’s independence, it was handed over to the Church of South India.

Fort Kochi is declared by the government as as heritage locale and many of the old infrastructure is maintained in its original form. It attracts tourists from across the world. While the European tourists visit all those edifices with utter reverence due to its global historical importance, many of locals do not give it a damn.

The fact is, history sleeps in the church. In this very first European church of India, the man who converted India into a European colony for close to 400+ years; lived, prayed and rested. His tomb stone  is still here.

ETHICS IN A TECHNOCENTRIC WORLD

Ethics deals with moral principles of of right & wrong. Ethics is more concerned with what we ought to do than what we do. Ethical philosophy is exhaustive, encompassing tens of thousands of years of human thought.

As described, ethics is the innate knowledge of right & wrong, as accepted by societies. Morality is living by the principles of right & wrong. It expects sacrificing individual interest for the benefit of the society.

Law translates morality into explicit social guidelines and practices, it stipulates punishments for offenses. It is the job of the authorities

The exponential growth of technology, be it Information & Communication Technology (ICT) or Biotechnology; has created in ethical conundrum in societies, nations and the planet. These technologies & its algorithms are self-regulatory by nature. Corporates and/or individuals, being both the creator and the regulator, it is giving nightmares to societies and governments. The challenge is that algorithms think differently than human beings. Things such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, genomics etc. have not been fully understood by authorities to prepare regulations upon that. Yuval Noah Harari, the famous thought leader and author says that writing code (algorithm) is equal to writing human societies. And, these algorithm makers have no training or knowledge on ethics that stayed in the realms of philosophers whose understanding of technologies are indeed poor.

As in the case of physicians and lawyers, who have to undergo some learning in ethics as part of their studies, no computer technologist, no engineer, no programmer ever undergoes any training in ethics. These professionals who move technology at God’s speed, are neither aware nor sensitised on the application of technology on human beings. The effects of the good and bad part of technology do not bother them much as they code new disruptive technologies with adrenalin pumping excitement and applies it randomly and at times, arbitrarily. The same applies mostly on management professionals too, whose main intent are to proliferate such technologies among masses, in order to monetise it at huge profits.

Most of high-technologies invades into the human privacy. Huge databases of users, that include their specific profiles, created and owned by Social Media platforms, are indeed a threat to the people as these platforms are much more aware of the person’s movement, behaviour, relationship and living habits better than the person himself. And today, technologically, it is also possible to continuously monitor all the people, all the time. Thus human privacy is totally lost, not only that, he had become manoeuvrable by the technology platforms. An example is the experimentation of the tech consulting company, Cambridge Analytica, on the electorate in specific parts of the country during the US election that was won by Donald Trump.

So if a person’s movement and behaviour is monitored and he is mentally made amenable, what would be the effect if a bio hacking happens on him where his body insides also undergo surveillance? It is where computer science combines with biological sciences to totally map out a person’s inside, outside, movement and behaviour. Imagine, what privacy is left of him, then? The beginning of such a biometric surveillance happened during Covid, in offices, airports, rail stations and meeting places, and all of you had undergone this surveillance, be it your temperature mapping or measuring the your breath for microbes and virus, all without you really knowing…….

Just look at this scenario. You are listening to a speech of an activist on your mobile device and he speaks with full anger against the authorities and you are listening to him. As he gets angry, you too are getting angry. And a software that is hacked into your device without your knowledge sends your present state of mind to the security agencies of the authoritarian government that rules your nation. What will happen of you thereafter? Heard of a surveillance software called Pegasus?

So, with the “big brother”, be it your establishment or authorities or government, who is monitoring your inside and outside on 24/7 basis, is there any privacy left out for you to protect? Isn’t it an existential question for you?  And, what if your information is sold for commercial purposes or used against you to implicate and incarcerate you?

Thus we come back to companies that code such disruptive algorithms. In a capital economy based system, such companies, come what may, would be tempted to monetise the innovation as have been the case ever since technology exploded into our lives. However we see some changes happening in the ecosystem with NGOs & some leading entrepreneurs combinedly have asked for a pause of such technologies, allowing governments and ecosystem players (industry bodies) to come out with laws and appropriate ethical code of conduct to regulate them. For example, we hear that Microsoft, one of the world’s leading tech giants, is implementing 6 ethical codes of conduct for its employees viz. 1. Protection of privacy, 2. Transparency, 3. Inclusivity, 4. Fairness - avoiding all sorts of biases. 5. Safety and Security & 6. Accountability of actions.  Microsoft leadership promises that every engineer/technologist in their system will undergo training on these codes of conduct and infringing the same will have severe punishment.

It is also important to increase the citizen / civil society activism on these matters where they involve with corporates and organisations who are making & using such technologies, in order to sensitise them and prevent dastardly acts using them. From a philosophical level, the ethics and governance should flow down to practical technology level.  Authorities and governments also must work on such ethical issues on a priority basis so that laws, conventions, practices, code of conduct etc. could be made and put in place benefitting nations and trade blocks. On such matters, the involvement of European Union on tech companies indulging in pushing products that harm / affect human beings, imposing huge penalties and blacklisting etc.,is appreciable, even if it is only addressing the tip of the iceberg.

A more enlightened approach is required of governments, corporates & citizenry to curb such ethical issues. Collective wisdom, avoiding parochial nationalism, continuous learning & powerful laws are the key to make the world a better place to live.

REQUIEM OR RESURGENCE FOR THE CONGRESS PARTY ?

It all began in 1885 when some 70 odd delegates of eminence came together in Bombay (now Mumbai) to form a movement by name Indian National Congress (INC) against the British imperialism that the people of the country had been undergoing so badly. It included men from all over india such as Dadhabhai Naoroji, Ramaswami Mudaliar, WC Bonnerji, Badruddin Tyabji, and a former British Civil servant AO Hume. Though history credited the founding to Mr Hume, the underlying ethos were simply Indian who were suffering the British Raj. 

In more than 135 plus years of its existence, the Congress, the name it got stuck with (unofficially it never got addressed as INC or National Congress), became the leading political party and the main exponent of country’s freedom struggle. In the 30’s and 40’s of the last century, the party could not prevent the emergence of Muslim League and the partition of the nation. After independence, Congress party ruled the country for close to 6 decades. It wouldn’t be out of place to say that the party really endeavoured to progress the nation which was left plundered by the colonial rulers.  

In the 70’s, deep fissures appeared within Congress, in addition to serious opposition build up against it from outside. The declaration of National Emergency in 1975 will remain as a major black mark in the party’s conscience.

Though started as a socialist party, it became the ‘adda’ of feudal lords, erstwhile kings, aspirational businessmen, caste chauvinists and of course, corrupt politicians. Over a period of time, many separate factions came out of it and these splinter party’s started playing lead role in regional and state politics. In effect, the mother congress party was slowly weakening as time progressed. The arrival of Narendra Modi into the national scenario and the hegemony that BJP brought to the national polity disrupted Congress further. In the last National election, the party’s numbers in Loksabha diminished to 53 MPs which didn’t entail it to get even an official ‘leader of opposition’ position. 

The first generation in the Congress party was patriots who having suffered slavery for long, wanted to get freedom and take country to a better shape. The next generation were mostly corrupt and feudalist opportunists who’s only interest was WIIIFM. People welfare, thus took back seat. Presently it has so many career politicians, (no other employment for them), their skills only being apple polishing the higher ups and reaching power, only to amass wealth. 

The fundamental reason for the party’s present plight is the hereditary politics that it followed. The Nehru clan, controls the party even today and is deemed as the “mai baap” of the party, called as ‘high command’! Sonia Gandhi, by virtue of being the wife of slain Rajiv Gandhi who was the son of Mrs. Indira Gandhi who happened to be the daughter of Jawaharlal Nehru, (the architect of free India) is at the apex of the party. How much is she connected to reality and how she understands the voter/citizen’s plight are major questions on her. She sits up there in the ivory tower, surrounded by ‘yes’ men who actualise as being tiny part of the high command. To add to her agony is the son, on whom the mantle of leadership was bestowed many times. For several ambivalent reasons, he drifts around, allowing opposition to caricature him as ‘irresponsible’, ‘immature’ etc. Her daughter Priyanka’s husband is embroiled in real estate scams plenty. To add to the agony, related to the sale of the huge assets of the party’s mouthpiece, National Herald, the Enforcement Directorate is troubling the mother, son and daughter.  

Some of the party’s top leaders, called Group of 23, rebelled against the leadership for the stalemate that has been continuing for 4/5 years now. Three/four of them are now out of the party and others are simply loitering. Nothing is exciting in the congress party and party-men are not amused either.

It is at his stage that decision to elect Congress President (other than the mother/son) is taken. It is obvious that the ‘high command’ will want to have a stooge of a person as the new party president, a la Manmohan Singh who was PM with Mrs Gandhi as the back seat driver. The Group of 23 finds it as an opportunity to get one of them to contest for the party president post and get elected (The Thiruvananthapuram MP’s name frequently heard as one). But there are many in the kitchen cabinet who are trying to block it. 

From 2014, with the formation of Modi government, BJP’s shenanigans not only took it to high acceptance among voters but also decimated the Congress party. Lack of strategic thinking, indecisiveness, nepotism, cronyism, WIIIFM politics and all had resulted in Congress party losing its grip on national politics. A genuine changeover and creation and execution of long term people-centric strategy can revive the party. Within the current geopolitics inside the party, it is not sure whether congress would soon have a requiem or a resurgence. 

Let us wait and watch……

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UNICORNS & HEAVENLY VALUATION

There is something brewing up in Byju’s. The news is not authenticated yet by the company or auditors or the investors. If rumours are true, it will not only hit Byju’s badly but tarnish the shaky Indian ‘edtech’ sector. We have also been reading such news about Vedantu, Unacademy etc.

Byju’s’ has an expensive edtech course which is sold to customers who cannot afford to purchase it by onetime payment. Therefore, it ties the customers with financing companies to facilitate a loan, to be repaid trough EMIs.

In Byju’s case, due to variety of reasons, there are huge EMI default by its customers. Normally lenders, who finance customers to buy products, try to validate the capability of the individual to pay back the loan. For risky loans, they make stringent approval criteria or raise the interest rates. But if the company that sells the product guarantees to repay some or all of the loan in case its customers default, the financing company would loosen its terms, thus facilitating  more sales. This guarantee is called the first loss default guarantee or FLDG.

Byju’s (and its Indian peers) gained immensely from this arrangements. This drove the company’s sales in India northward.

The challenge has been that the households that are barely making ends meet, have often not been to repay the loans. And there are hundreds of thousands of defaulters now that were compensated by Byju’s to the financiers. 

Byju’s has a challenge to show these refunds in the book and due to this, Deloitte, the auditors of the company is not signing its 2020-21 balance sheet (it is more than 15 months now). This has now triggered panic amongst the edtech’s investors and rival edtech leaders.

It is for these reasons that RBI wants to clamp down on FLDGs. If that happens, lots of edtech loans might come on the radar. That is the major risk for Byju’s. This also would affect the impending IPO of Byju’s, and that can have serious ramifications for the investing companies. 

Apparently, FLDG has the same characteristics of the Sub Prime Lending of 2008 that started a global economic collapse. 

One tend to argue that like most of the Unicorns is in the country, Byju's is also a flawed case of valuation. It is  not different from what happened during dot com bubble. Our penchant for "Unicorns" is heading us for another financial disaster. One is still wondering how some of the Indian startups could become a unicorn in just 6 months. 

The astonishing figures of losses these companies make are often shoved under the carpet and VCs make merry by selling them among each other and finally selling to unsuspected primary market investors to their peril ! In fact in Kerala, we are criticised for not having "valuable" unicorns but only profitable companies. It is hoped that proponents of startup ecosystem will soon come out of the mythical world of heavenly unicorns, most of whom are nothing but lame donkeys with an artificial overgrowth

LIFE IS A RIVER

Who said the river flows smoothly? Seldom it does. When it rains, it goes into spate. On its way, there are thousands of rapids trying to break its flow and tear its body into pieces and then, there are deep falls that it is forced to jump. Yes, the river has a lot to tell about its journey, the ups and the downs. In spite of it all, it flows and reaches its destiny, of dissolving into the sea. 

Life is also like that. Who said life is a bed of roses? At best it is a sinusoidal wave and at its worst, it is like a river in spate facing multiple rapids and forced to jump! Like an all in one! 

There are good times in life that we enjoy and there are bad times too that we hate to face. Often when it is bad, many struggles come together to test  our strength, our patience and our life. People with weak mind start wilting. Too bad! 

We all want to be hale & hearty and successful. But our best learnings come from our failures, our setbacks and our challenges. Theses  learnings stand in good stead for us to face the next of bad times with a peaceful thought, ‘this too will pass’. 

When we have difficulties, we start blaming others and the situations. We think the world has come together to kick us on the butt. Just realise this, there are things in our control and there are things out of our control. We can only address things in our control which let us do. The rapids, the falls are out of control, let us face them. But let us not yield to those. Let us face them with grit and win over it. There are so many examples of that. 

The advice here is, do not give up fast. Sometimes you may say, ‘it is coming repeatedly’. Let me assure you, it will not stay long, it may be there a while but it would go way. Transience, that is the law of nature. It comes, it goes. Guaranteed that it will. 

Strengthen your mind. Pray, meditate or reflect. Find some exclusive time for yourself. Let the happening go though your mind as a trailer but PLEASE DO NOT BE JUDGEMENTAL. That is the key. By itself, it is an inside oriented therapy. It soothes, it cools, not only that, it removes ambivalence, it brings better clarity and above all, it consolidates relationship with near and dear. Try it out, please. 

Remember, TOUGH TIMES DON’T LAST, TOUGH PEOPLE DO.