Over the last two decades, the nations have been evolving into being part of new umbrella groups; based on economics, political and also, on defence concerns. We now see certain accelerated pace in the consolidation process.
Here, we predominantly refer to the political developments and defence consolidations.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was founded in Shanghai during 2001 as an intergovernmental organization by Russia, China, Khazakhstan, Krygystan, Tajikistan, & Uzbekistan. The objectives of the formation of SCO were to strengthen relationship between member countries; promote cooperation in political, commercial, technological, cultural, and educational spheres; safeguard regional peace, security, and stability; create democratic, equitable international political and economic order. The last point seems funny as none of founder members is known for their democratic practices, which is worsening, as years go by. Later, in 2017, India and Pakistan joined SCO as full members. It is not sure what was India expecting to be part of the group with China & Russia, two big bullies, patronising it. Other than higher trade possibilities, nothing comes to mind. However with India in the group, today SCO may not be able to function as a NATO equivalent because of the variation in political ideology between India & other nations in the group. That looks like a checkmate situation.
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD)
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (also known as the Quad) started as an informal strategic dialogue between the United Staes, Japan, Australia & India. The dialogue was initiated in 2007 by Prime Minister of Japan with the Vice President of the US, Prime Minister of Australia and Prime Minister of India. The dialogue had succeeded in Exercise Malabar, a joint military exercise of an unprecedented scale on Indian Ocean. This was viewed as a response to Chinese economic & military consolidation and China did respond to the developments by issuing formal diplomatic protests to the Quad members.
The
acrimony between US & China for sometime, and the present challenges between US & Russia, is
slowly taking QUAD into an Asian equivalent of NATO, and it could precipitate a Cold War situation.
On 12th March
2021, the first Quad summit took place online between the four member nations and
the group resolved to commit to manufacturing one billion
doses of Covid vaccine by 2022 for distribution in Asia, where China’s presence
casts a huge shadow. Quad seems
to have come of age as an important pillar of stability in the region, trying
to create ‘free,
rules-based order, both in the Indo-Pacific and beyond’, as envisaged by its
founders.
The recently concluded talks between
USA and China in Alaska on 18 & 19th of March 2021 were
practically an aborted attempt with tough dialogues and body posture displayed
by both parties. Both sides accused each other of having broken
diplomatic protocol between them. While the United States accused China of threatening
the rule based order of global stability, China lashed out at US, accusing it of condescension
and hypocrisy. China also displayed an attitude to US of, 'you need me, I don't need
you’.
The China – Russia Solidarity
Immediately as a follow through of the failed Alaska talks, China held Foreign minister level talks with Russia on 22nd March 20221 in China in which both accused United States of interference and sanctions. In a show of unity, the foreign ministers of both China and Russia have condemned Western sanctions against them and accused the US of political interference. Naturally enough, Chinese Foreign Minister and his Russian counterpart rejected outside criticism of their respctive authoritarian regiems.
Group of Friends in Defence of the Charter of the UN
Anticipating troubles ahead, in March 2021 itself, Russia and
China along with North Korea & Iran, established ‘Group of Friends in Defence of the Charter of
the United Nations’ giving message of supporting the UN’s founding treaty, seeking
to promote multilateralism and diplomacy over the use of force by Nations or
blocks against ‘perceived violations’ by other UN member states. It has 17 signatory
countries in it, in addition to the above four, which include Cuba, Cambodia, Palestine,
Syria, Venezuela, Algeria, Angola, Belarus, Bolivia, Laos, Eritrea, Nicaragua &
St. Vincent.
Apparently, the’ Group of Friends’ as above, are taking an advance bail against the atrocities that each is committing inside their nation and asking the UN and the world to accept their authoritarian regimes. It is expected that the number of nations in this group will go up. It is early stage of the group consolidation. Also, it wouldn't be surprising to see new members added to Quad. In addition to this, we also must take cognizance of existing bodies such as NATO and the bilateral agreements of protection between nations.
It is now evident from the dynamics that the world is now moving into another evolution of world order.
